Post by account_disabled on Mar 10, 2024 6:58:44 GMT
Generative artificial intelligence, even though it has yet entered the daily lives of a few million people, is already dividing regarding the benefits and harms it will bring to humanity. In particular, the impact on work is the most controversial and debated issue. The International Monetary Fund has carried out a very interesting study that tries to give scientific basis to the most burning question: will generative AI destroy or create jobs? The main finding is that, on average, around 40% of global employment could be exposed to the effects of generative AI (both positive and negative).
This percentage rises to 60% in the most advanced economies and drops to 26% in the India Mobile Number Data lowest income countries. The reason for these differences between economies is due to the peculiar characteristics of these new technologies. While classical AI and, in general, information technologies have mainly concerned routine activities, GenAI will also involve highly qualified and creative jobs because it allows, not only to analyze data, but to create new digital artefacts (texts, code, images, videos, audio). Specifically, what does a 60% impact in advanced economies imply? According to the IMF, around half of the jobs exposed could benefit from AI integration, improving productivity. These are cases in which the technology will be complementary to the activity carried out and therefore can be used to amplify its value. For the other half, AI applications could perform key tasks currently performed by humans.
Here the technology has low complementarity with the work performed and, therefore, could lead to lower wages and a reduction in hiring. In the most extreme cases, some of these jobs could disappear entirely. The impact will be different even within the same job category because, generally speaking, younger workers may be more flexible in taking advantage of the benefits of these new technologies to the detriment of more mature workers who are less likely, if not helped, to refresh their skills. Jobs at risk in the era of generative AI An element that is often not considered is that the current development phase of GenAI is in continuity with that of automation which is already affecting various works (both in the form of industrial robotics and in that of document automation systems). McKinsey has calculated that in the USA, by 2030, automation will affect 21.5% of hours worked.
This percentage rises to 60% in the most advanced economies and drops to 26% in the India Mobile Number Data lowest income countries. The reason for these differences between economies is due to the peculiar characteristics of these new technologies. While classical AI and, in general, information technologies have mainly concerned routine activities, GenAI will also involve highly qualified and creative jobs because it allows, not only to analyze data, but to create new digital artefacts (texts, code, images, videos, audio). Specifically, what does a 60% impact in advanced economies imply? According to the IMF, around half of the jobs exposed could benefit from AI integration, improving productivity. These are cases in which the technology will be complementary to the activity carried out and therefore can be used to amplify its value. For the other half, AI applications could perform key tasks currently performed by humans.
Here the technology has low complementarity with the work performed and, therefore, could lead to lower wages and a reduction in hiring. In the most extreme cases, some of these jobs could disappear entirely. The impact will be different even within the same job category because, generally speaking, younger workers may be more flexible in taking advantage of the benefits of these new technologies to the detriment of more mature workers who are less likely, if not helped, to refresh their skills. Jobs at risk in the era of generative AI An element that is often not considered is that the current development phase of GenAI is in continuity with that of automation which is already affecting various works (both in the form of industrial robotics and in that of document automation systems). McKinsey has calculated that in the USA, by 2030, automation will affect 21.5% of hours worked.